Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he doesn’t believe predictions about the economic costs of a No Deal Brexit, branding them “project fear” in the House of Commons.
However, latest economic data from the UK’s service sector shows the economic costs of No Deal have already began to bite, and may have already sent us into recession. “Brexit-related concerns dominated”, with September’s survey of businesses in the sector showing output falling and the biggest cut in employment in nine years.
This adds to recent surveys showing falling output in both the manufacturing and construction sectors, the first time all three sectors had registered declining output since the recession in April 2009.
The economists compiling the data said the evidence points to a fall in GDP of 0.1% in the third quarter, meaning the UK would enter a technical recession after output GDP fell 0.2% in the second quarter.
The survey also found “evidence that international clients had switched business to other markets amid increased concerns around a potential no-deal Brexit.” This is after analysis by the Labour Party found Brexit uncertainty has cost the UK economy £40 billion in lost business investment in this year alone.
The economic costs of No Deal are not “project fear” – they are already a reality.